Intelligence Analyses

Dedicated to the independent development of intelligence analysis to identify trends and predict intent in both national politics and international security.

International Security & National Political Trends

My Fiction

Central Africa and the New Islamic Front
February 2019

Summary: Central Africa is the new front of the Islamic insurgency and the new front for the Islamic State. Africa has long been a hotbed for Islamic insurgency with several al Qaeda affiliated radical groups carrying out violent insurgencies in many countries.

Right now, it is the most violent region after Syria and Iraq. However, the chaotic violence in the Middle-East and the threat of ISIS have captured the world’s attention largely overshadowing the violence in Africa.

As the Syrian Civil War winds down, and Iraq comes under control, the radical factions of ISIS have followed in the direction of al Qaeda and begun to franchise their operations abroad creating a whole new front in the countries of Western Africa.

Hezbollah’s South American Criminal Network
January 2019

Summary: For years the Lebanese based radical organization known as Hezbollah has held a significant presence in South America. Its activities have ranged from terrorist acts waged against the Jewish community to working through criminal groups to further its goals.

India's Shifting Geopolitical Position with Iran
December 2018

Summary: In recent years India has gradually shifted its position from supporting the U.S. policy towards Iran to re-establishing long held relations with its neighbor. This has led India to develop economic relations that openly violate the current sanctions held against Iran.

India has emerged as a serious economic power on a global scale making them, along with Russia, powerful allies that severely curb the effectiveness of U.S. economic power as a tool of diplomacy dealing with Iran.

Russia's Global Arms Trade and its Impact on US Global Influence
November 2018

Summary: Today, Russia provides modern state of the art combat equipment to such nation-states as Iran, China, and North Korea. Russia's wide clientele has complicated US deterrents, allowing Russia to offer itself as a viable alternative for countries frozen out of arms markets by US sanctions. This serves to weaken the power of those sanctions, undermining US influence.

The Growing Influence of China in Afghanistan in the Aftermath of the US Intervention
October 2018

Summary: With the subsequent withdrawal of US and allied forces from the Afghan region, China and neighboring countries have stepped in to assert influence in the hopes of bringing some form of viable stability. In doing so, China has begun developing its military and economic ties to the country with the long-term intention of influence building.

The Situation in Iraq After the ISIS Threat

Summary: The threat of ISIS in Iraq has largely subsided, and the country is left in a complicated state. During the conflict, the ISIS threat virtually neutralized the Iraqi army and forced the populace to turn their reliance towards the array of Shiite militias that arose to fill the security gap. Now, the Shiite militias have emerged as the dominant military force surpassing even the authority of the government.

Russia's Relations with Iran and
Its Overall Strategy for the Middle-East
June 2018

Summary: In the last few years Russia has been playing a serious role in the affairs of the greater of the Middle-East region. In doing so, it has assumed a powerful position as both a military and economic power ─ one that has largely provided an impediment to U.S. and western influences in the region.

Turkey's Growing Alliance with Iran
May 2018

Summary: Turkey and Iran, who have been in constant competition with each other for the last five years, and their relationship has been extremely hostile. In the last few months, however, they have been making serious moves towards building a stronger and friendlier alliance.

This has been largely due to growing concerns both countries share over a mutual threat ─ the Kurds. The war in Syria has left the Kurds controlling a sizeable area that they fully intend to see turned into the autonomous state of Kurdistan and a serious resurgence of fervent Kurdish nationalism across the region.

Understanding North Korean Intelligence
April 2018

Summary: North Korea remains a critical security challenge for the U.S. Despite significant resource shortfalls and aging hardware, the DPRK maintains a large, conventional, forward-deployed military and continues to improve its ability to launch rapid, small-scale attacks against South Korea.

North Korea’s continuing efforts to undertake provocative actions against Seoul—demonstrated during its August 2015 ambush of South Korean soldiers—poses a serious threat to the U.S. and its regional allies.

We also remain concerned about North Korea’s proliferation activities in contravention of the United Nations (UN) Security Council (www.dia.mil/). Enemies in the past needed great armies and great industrial capabilities to endanger America. Now, shadowy networks of individuals can bring extensive chaos and suffering to our shores for less than it costs to purchase a single tank. Terrorists are organized to penetrate open societies and to turn the power of modern technologies against us (georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/).

Myanmar’s Military Regime and
North Korea’s International Arms Business
March 2018

Summary: The communist regime of North Korea has long financed its economy through an illicit arms business, a business that has catered to outlaw regimes in the world by offering a multitude of extensive services for weapons development and procurement.

One of its chief clients is the military regime in Myanmar that has been embroiled for decades in an ethnic-based civil war. This conflict has led to all sorts of severe human rights abuses ranging from torture and rape to near genocide. Throughout the years of the Obama administration, it had been a primary goal of U.S. policy to break up this relationship. While it had been thought that the U.S. had been successful in achieving this goal during the Obama years, recent evidence has come to light that suggests this is not the case.

India's Growing Influence in South America
January 2018

Summary: Recent actions taken by U.S. President Donald Trump have revived old hostilities and fears among Latin American countries. Latin America is also disillusioned with Europe which is mired in trade protection, anti-immigration, and other such issues.

The non-transparent and sometimes high-handed business practices of the Chinese and the hidden agendas of Chinese government-owned enterprises have been viewed with grave suspicion. Realizing the risk of the overwhelming dominant presence of China, many Latin American countries want to reduce their dependence. With that in mind, Latin American governments and businesses have started looking more seriously at India. The past few years India has gradually emerged as a prominent trading partner in the South American region. It has become more important for Latin America’s exports than any European country (todaycolombia.com).

The Complicated Islamic Backlash in the South Pacific
January 2018

Summary: The decision by the U.S. to move the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem has sparked global protests. Currently, the Islamic nation-states of the South-Pacific have been awash with protests of Muslims rallying support of the Palestinians. These protests have not just been gatherings of several thousand people, they have also received the public support of their executive political leaders including the president of Indonesia and the prime minister of Malaysia. This raises a concern as to where the future of the South-Pacific is headed, and what it means for U.S. security interests in the region.

A clandestine war.

Two covert armies.

A winner-take-all prize...

Iran wants a foothold in the western hemisphere. They’ve sent Revolutionary Guard black ops expert, Colonel Ali Anwar al Qalmini, to South America to get it.

Qalmini’s team: the beautiful and ruthless Contessa Selena de Alvarez—mysterious international broker of criminal services; Nouri al-Surriman, Hezbollah operative with South American ties; Oskar Vlak Straudner, an obsessed politician willing to work with anyone who will secure his assent to power. Together, they plan to unleash chaos, topple a government and install an Iranian-backed puppet regime right under the noses of the US and its allies.

Veteran Mossad operative Micha Cohen sees what is happening, but having been written off by his old Israeli comrades, no one believes him. Only Kafka Dayan—former commando with Israel’s elite Shayetet 13—and a small band of mercenaries and old friends are willing to take the field with Cohen to uncover and destroy the Iranian operation. Outmatched, Cohen and his hard-scrabble team will need all of their resources and skills…along with a hefty amount of luck…to win this deadly game.

The Montevideo Game is a finely plotted espionage thriller with highly realistic military action in the tradition of Forsyth, Clancy and le Carré.

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Her team is dead. The enemy is closing in. Sauwa Catcher is running out of time...

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She's lasted a year in a war zone, a mercenary hired by the Croatian Army.

Now NATO is coming, her team is dead, and Sauwa Catcher's orders are specific: take out an obscure target in Bosnian-held territory, and get out of the country before NATO arrives and hunts her down. She'll need all her military know-how--and the help of a novice band of Croatian guerrillas--to fulfill her mission and make it out alive.

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The notorious Angel of Death is now a gun for hire...

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A once reluctant but lethal soldier in a fallen regime finds herself without a country -- alone and hunted.

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The Growing Tensions Between India and China
December 2017

Summary: In recent months, China and India — the world’s two most populous nations — India and China ─ have engaged in increasingly bellicose exchanges over a remote border dispute that has gradually grown more contentious (india-china-standoff).

The Rising Threat of Buddhist Radicalism and Its Future
October 2017

Summary: Buddhist fundamentalism and the accompanying nationalistic violence has been fermenting for several years in the Asian South Pacific. Over the past year in parts of Asia, friction between Buddhism and Islam has killed hundreds, mostly Muslims. The violence is being fanned by extremist Buddhist monks who preach a dangerous form of religious chauvinism to their followers (world.time.com). This violence has largely been confined to eruptions of violent riots and political demagoguery. However, many factors point to the notion that this may gradually expand.

The United Arab Emirates Mercenary Army in Yemen
September 2017

Summary: In March 2010, a coalition of Arab powers in the Saudi Gulf was formed to combat the rising threat of the Iranian led Houthi insurgents operating in Yemen. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a member country to the coalition, has responded through a strategy that calls for building an armed force with the use of foreign soldiers.

Since the beginning of the insurgency in 2010, the UAE has embarked on an intensive program to make its armed forces better organized and more effective to engage the insurgency. To do this, they have sought the assistance of foreign military professionals and undergone an intensive recruiting program that has spanned the globe.

Malhama Tactical and the Rise of the Jihadi Private Military Company
August 2017

Summary: The Syrian Civil War has seen the rise of a new dynamic in the jihadist movement; the rise of the private mercenary firm that caters to Islamic fundamentalism. Malhama Tactical is the world’s first jihadi private military contractor (PMC) and consulting firm. The outfit’s fighting prowess and training programs are renowned among jihadis in Syria and their admirers elsewhere.

Since launching the firm in May 2016, Malhama has grown and doing a brisk business in Syria. It’s been contracted to fight and provide training and other battlefield consulting alongside groups like the al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly known as the Nusra Front) and the Turkistan Islamic Party, a Uighur extremist group from China’s restive Xinjiang province.

Despite recent rebel setbacks in Syria, including the loss of Aleppo, demand for Malhama Tactical’s services in the country is as strong as ever. Heavily armed and expertly kitted with body armor and ballistic helmets, the men can be seen defending bunkers, storming buildings, and even posing by whiteboards giving tactical lessons[1].

The Global Impact of the Iranian Presidential Elections and the Need for Hassan Rouhani to Gain a Second Term
June 2017

Summary: Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, is seeking a second term in the elections. A moderate and under his term, the world has seen a softening in Iran’s dealings with the West. A contrast from the policies driven by the previous leadership of the country.

The Rising Power of Chinese Leader Xi Jinping and the Future of China
April 2017

Summary: Since rise to office in 2012, Xi has been steadily and aggressively consolidating his power. In addition to serving as president, head of the party and military, he is also the head of a number of other important groups, including the Central National Security Commission and the leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs. To many, he wants to leave a celebrated legacy. That’s why he is, in a sense, emulating President Vladimir Putin, by giving himself a virtual office for life[1].

China and the Future of Cyberwar
February 2017

Summary: China is one of the most active nations cyberspace. It has devoted substantial money, manpower and resources to developing its cyber capabilities. Chinese cyber capabilities include a mix of dedicated personnel, advanced equipment and cyberattack methodologies. According to the cybersecurity firm Mandiant, since as early as 2006, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been using an elite cyberwarfare unit based in Shanghai to launch hundreds of cyberattacks targeting American interests. China President Xi Jinping has made no secret that a “new model of great power relations” policy means that it will not be afraid to challenge the U.S. and the rest of the world in areas it considers a core interest, such as cyberspace[1].

Summary: The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has garnered the status as the predominant threat affecting regional stability as the accepted face of modern Islamic radiclism. ISIS has been viewed as the primary force destabilizing the Persion Gulf region and the supposed successor to al Qaeda. However, the true threat of ISIS has been greatly exaggerated by the western press, public hysteria and its own self-promotion.

Strategically it is an organization that has enjoyed marginal success in the regional conflict in Syria and Iraq, currently suffers dwindling support, and has largely isolated itself from the greater Sunni Islamic fundamentalist movement. In the wake of all the attention being given to ISIS, what is seemingly going unnoticed is that the al Qaeda franchise continues to operate as the primary global unifier of the Sunni radical movement. Ayman al-Zawahiri is still recognized as the central and spiritual leader.

Further, the growing threat of Shia based militias has emerged triumphant in Iraq and are now pouring into Syria in support of the Assad regime. Perhaps of more concern should be the Iranian government that is providing most of the support. This suggests that Shia fundamentalism will quickly ascend as the dominant threat in the region.

The Continuing Problem and Intricate Role
of Drug Cartels in the Western Hemisphere
10/01/2016

Summary: Drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) continue to act as a serious problem of U.S. national security. However, the troubling crisis in the Middle East and the lingering threat of international Islamic terrorism has largely overshadowed the threats posed by the cartels. Nevertheless, though a general understanding exists about DTOs and their activities, the intricate role they now play into the society and systems of government for several countries in the Western Hemisphere has still largely gone unrecognized. Indeed, DTOs are far from vanquished or even controlled and have only continued as a growing threat to the security of not just the United States but the entire Western Hemisphere.

Turkey’s Desultory and Dangerous Foreign Policy
07/01/2016

Summary: The rise of the Arab Spring, more particularly the Syrian civil war, and the ISIS offensive in northern Iraq has created a fresh crisis for Turkey. Al-Qa‘ida-related groups have carried out several terror attacks in that country in the past and continue to do so. Based on this perspective, Turkey has already seemed more willing to work with the United States to marginalize al-Qa‘ida-linked organizations. Turkey has also reportedly agreed to take part in a U.S.-led program to train vetted rebels in Qatar to marginalize jihadis in the Syrian opposition. However, though Turkey has been seen as a beneficial partner in the fight to stabilize the region, its own agenda may be more suspect.

The Higgins Report