Intelligence Analyses

This site is dedicated to the independent development of intelligence analysis for the purpose of identifying trends and predicting intent in both national politics and international security.

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National Politics 
 International Security
My Fiction

​The Progressive Strategy on Attacking the President’s Environmental Deregulation Policy
July 2017

​Summary: President Donald Trump seeks to remove the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement, reduce the authority of the Environmental Protection Agency and deregulate many of the current statutes governing the federal environmental program. Progressives are attempting to build a platform for a movement to combat Trump’s plan. At a state and local level, grassroots movements are beginning to form to challenge the current policies of the President and promote state level policies as a response. Their strategy, thus far, points toward two concepts: emphasize building the momentum for their movement to effect regulation and laws at the state level; and tout the argument that government regulation and oversight is the only means to guard against further degradation.

The Growing Significance of the State Attorneys General
on the National Level
May 2017

​​Summary: Before the U.S. Supreme Court, states have stronger grounds for contesting federal authority than they did in the past. State Attorney Generals have been propelled into the forefront as a check and balance against federal overreach.

The Changing Strategy of the Democrat Party
​in the Era of Donald Trump
March 2017​

Summary:  City governments are themselves increasingly important hubs of power in a tiered system of global governance. Demographers now estimate that by 2050, cities will be home to two-thirds of the world’s total population and every one of the world’s inhabited continents will have more people living in cities than in rural areas[1]. Politicians of major cities are, therefore, becoming more integrated into the greater political landscape.
City officials who serve the needs and demands of diverse communities have emerged as global catalysts for innovative thinking on issues from immigration to climate change. National leaders have a range of tools, from diplomacy to warfare, for managing issues and settling disputes. The heads of cities rely on different toolkits to deal with things like economic development and immigration, and persistent stresses like crime and poverty[2]. In an emerging age of managerial politics, city leaders will start to emerge as the next cadre for national political leadership.

The Rising Power of the Latino Political Base
1/7/2017​

Summary: the Latin-American community in the United States has gradually emerged as a base of political power. As of 2016 Latinos constitute upward of 15% of all adults living in the United States and more than 17% of all residents. Today they comprise 12% of the voting public in total. In the past, such assertions were made about the rise of the Latin-American as a voting power only to prove a miscalculation by ignoring internal ethnic divisions[1]. However, the modern climate over identity politics and the work of groups within the Latin community could create a new dynamic within the U.S. political landscape.   [1] Pastor, 2016

The Shadowy Dealings of the Chagoury Brothers
in American Politics
07/27/2016​

Summary:  The Chagoury brothers, Gilbert and Roger, two Nigerian businessmen, have for the last several years been quiet and major financial supporters of the Clinton Foundation with Gilbert appearing near the top of the donor list in 2008 as a $1 million to $5 million contributor[1].  The relationship between the Clintons and the Chagoury brothers are close enough that in 2013 former U.S. President Bill Clinton attended the opening of the first phase of one of their giant real estate projects in Lagos called the "Dubai of Africa" Elko Atlantic[2].  Given both the amount of money and the extent of relations with well-connected American political players, it is obvious that the Chagoury brothers have an influence within the greater American political spectrum.   

The Rise of a New Labor Movement
​04/27/2016

​Summary:  Union strength has been on the wane since the 1950s and, beginning in the 1980s, suffered a catastrophic free fall in the private sector that continues to this day.  Underlying this failure is a more fundamental problem: American enterprise-based collective bargaining is an inherently weak model of industrial and labor relations.  Organized labor’s legislative strategy since the 1950s—restoring the old model of union bargaining—is unlikely to prevail in the 21st century.  In the wake of this decline, voluntary worker associations have developed the capacity to represent workers through onsite worker-led enforcement of labor standards and employment laws within a geographic area or an industry. This could take the form of publicly financed organizations that advocate for workers under municipal law. (http://prospect.org/article/toward-21st-century-labor-movement).

​A Dire Situation in Louisiana and the
Dangerous Blowback on Republicans
​02/18/2016

SUMMARY:  On Sunday, February 14, John Bel Edwards, the newly elected Democrat governor of Louisiana announced that within the next four months, Louisiana must fill a $940 million budget deficit.  Edwards wants to increase income taxes in order to address the estimated nearly $2 billion deficit the state must cover for next year (http://www.washingtonmonthly.com
​/college_guide/blog/louisiana_faces_worst_fiscal_c.php).  Two prominent Louisiana Republican politicians were targets on February 14, in Gov. John Bel Edwards' speech opening the special legislative session.  The Democrat governor never named former Gov. Bobby Jindal or state Treasurer John Kennedy directly.  But he took digs at Jindal as helping to create the state's financial troubles and at Kennedy for suggestions those troubles could be fixed without tax hikes (http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02/
​gov_john_bel_edwards_criticize.html).

Turkey's Growing Alliance with Iran
May 2018

Summary: Turkey and Iran, who have been in constant competition with each other for the last five years, and their relationship has been extremely hostile. In the last few months, however, they have been making serious moves towards building a stronger and friendlier alliance.

This has been largely due to growing concerns both countries share over a mutual threat ─ the Kurds. The war in Syria has left the Kurds controlling a sizeable area that they fully intend to see turned into the autonomous state of Kurdistan and a serious resurgence of fervent Kurdish nationalism across the region.

Understanding North Korean Intelligence
​April 2018

Summary: North Korea remains a critical security challenge for the U.S. Despite significant resource shortfalls and aging hardware, the DPRK maintains a large, conventional, forward-deployed military and continues to improve its ability to launch rapid, small-scale attacks against South Korea.

North Korea’s continuing efforts to undertake provocative actions against Seoul—demonstrated during its August 2015 ambush of South Korean soldiers—poses a serious threat to the U.S. and its regional allies.

We also remain concerned about North Korea’s proliferation activities in contravention of the United Nations (UN) Security Council (www.dia.mil/). Enemies in the past needed great armies and great industrial capabilities to endanger America. Now, shadowy networks of individuals can bring extensive chaos and suffering to our shores for less than it costs to purchase a single tank. Terrorists are organized to penetrate open societies and to turn the power of modern technologies against us (georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/).

Myanmar’s Military Regime and
North Korea’s International Arms Business
March 2018

Summary: The communist regime of North Korea has long financed its economy through an illicit arms business, a business that has catered to outlaw regimes in the world by offering a multitude of extensive services for weapons development and procurement.

​One of its chief clients is the military regime in Myanmar that has been embroiled for decades in an ethnic-based civil war. This conflict has led to all sorts of severe human rights abuses ranging from torture and rape to near genocide. Throughout the years of the Obama administration, it had been a primary goal of U.S. policy to break up this relationship. While it had been thought that the U.S. had been successful in achieving this goal during the Obama years, recent evidence has come to light that suggests this is not the case.    

India's Growing Influence in South America
​January 2018​

Summary: Recent actions taken by U.S. President Donald Trump have revived old hostilities and fears among Latin American countries. Latin America is also disillusioned with Europe which is mired in trade protection, anti-immigration, and other such issues.

​The non-transparent and sometimes high-handed business practices of the Chinese and the hidden agendas of Chinese government-owned enterprises have been viewed with grave suspicion. Realizing the risk of the overwhelming dominant presence of China, many Latin American countries want to reduce their dependence. With that in mind, Latin American governments and businesses have started looking more seriously at India. The past few years India has gradually emerged as a prominent trading partner in the South American region. It has become more important for Latin America’s exports than any European country (todaycolombia.com).

The Complicated Islamic Backlash in the South Pacific
January 2018

Summary: The decision by the U.S. to move the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem has sparked global protests. Currently, the Islamic nation-states of the South-Pacific have been awash with protests of Muslims rallying support of the Palestinians. These protests have not just been gatherings of several thousand people, they have also received the public support of their executive political leaders including the president of Indonesia and the prime minister of Malaysia. This raises a concern as to where the future of the South-Pacific is headed, and what it means for U.S. security interests in the region.

The notorious Angel of Death is now a gun for hire...

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A once reluctant but lethal soldier in a fallen regime finds herself without a country -- alone and hunted.

The Growing Tensions Between India and China
December 2017

Summary: In recent months, China and India — the world’s two most populous nations — India and China ─ have engaged in increasingly bellicose exchanges over a remote border dispute that has gradually grown more contentious (india-china-standoff).  

The Rising Threat of Buddhist Radicalism and Its Future
October 2017

Summary: Buddhist fundamentalism and the accompanying nationalistic violence has been fermenting for several years in the Asian South Pacific. Over the past year in parts of Asia, friction between Buddhism and Islam has killed hundreds, mostly Muslims. The violence is being fanned by extremist Buddhist monks who preach a dangerous form of religious chauvinism to their followers (world.time.com). This violence has largely been confined to eruptions of violent riots and political demagoguery. However, many factors point to the notion that this may gradually expand. 

The United Arab Emirates Mercenary Army in Yemen
​September 2017

Summary: In March 2010, a coalition of Arab powers in the Saudi Gulf was formed to combat the rising threat of the Iranian led Houthi insurgents operating in Yemen.  The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a member country to the coalition, has responded through a strategy that calls for building an armed force with the use of foreign soldiers. 

Since the beginning of the insurgency in 2010, the UAE has embarked on an intensive program to make its armed forces better organized and more effective to engage the insurgency. To do this, they have sought the assistance of foreign military professionals and undergone an intensive recruiting program that has spanned the globe.

​Malhama Tactical and the Rise of the Jihadi Private Military Company
​August 2017​

Summary:  The Syrian Civil War has seen the rise of a new dynamic in the jihadist movement; the rise of the private mercenary firm that caters to Islamic fundamentalism. Malhama Tactical is the world’s first jihadi private military contractor (PMC) and consulting firm. The outfit’s fighting prowess and training programs are renowned among jihadis in Syria and their admirers elsewhere.
 
Since launching the firm in May 2016, Malhama has grown and doing a brisk business in Syria. It’s been contracted to fight and provide training and other battlefield consulting alongside groups like the al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly known as the Nusra Front) and the Turkistan Islamic Party, a Uighur extremist group from China’s restive Xinjiang province.
 
Despite recent rebel setbacks in Syria, including the loss of Aleppo, demand for Malhama Tactical’s services in the country is as strong as ever. Heavily armed and expertly kitted with body armor and ballistic helmets, the men can be seen defending bunkers, storming buildings, and even posing by whiteboards giving tactical lessons[1]. 

The Global Impact of the Iranian Presidential Elections and the Need for Hassan Rouhani to Gain a Second Term
​June 2017

​Summary: Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, is seeking a second term in the elections. A moderate and under his term, the world has seen a softening in Iran’s dealings with the West. A contrast from the policies driven by the previous leadership of the country.

The Rising Power of Chinese Leader Xi Jinping and the Future of China
​April 2017

Summary: Since rise to office in 2012, Xi has been steadily and aggressively consolidating his power. In addition to serving as president, head of the party and military, he is also the head of a number of other important groups, including the Central National Security Commission and the leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs. To many, he wants to leave a celebrated legacy. That’s why he is, in a sense, emulating President Vladimir Putin, by giving himself a virtual office for life[1].​

​China and the Future of Cyberwar
​February 2017

Summary: China is one of the most active nations cyberspace. It has devoted substantial money, manpower and resources to developing its cyber capabilities. Chinese cyber capabilities include a mix of dedicated personnel, advanced equipment and cyberattack methodologies. According to the cybersecurity firm Mandiant, since as early as 2006, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been using an elite cyberwarfare unit based in Shanghai to launch hundreds of cyberattacks targeting American interests. China President Xi Jinping has made no secret that a “new model of great power relations” policy means that it will not be afraid to challenge the U.S. and the rest of the world in areas it considers a core interest, such as cyberspace[1].

The Decline of ISIS
and the Failing of Western Intelligence
11/27/2016​

Summary: ​​The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has garnered the status as the predominant threat affecting regional stability as the accepted face of modern Islamic radiclism. ISIS has been viewed as the primary force destabilizing the Persion Gulf region and the supposed successor to al Qaeda. However, the true threat of ISIS has been greatly exaggerated by the western press, public hysteria and its own self-promotion.

​Strategically it is an organization that has enjoyed marginal success in the regional conflict in Syria and Iraq, currently suffers dwindling support, and has largely isolated itself from the greater Sunni Islamic fundamentalist movement.  In the wake of all the attention being given to ISIS, what is seemingly going unnoticed is that the al Qaeda franchise continues to operate as the primary global unifier of the Sunni radical movement. Ayman al-Zawahiri is still recognized as the central and spiritual leader [1].

​Further, the growing threat of Shia based militias has emerged triumphant in Iraq and are now pouring into Syria in support of the Assad regime. Perhaps of more concern should be the Iranian government that is providing most of the support. This suggests that Shia fundamentalism will quickly ascend as the dominant threat in the region.

​The Continuing Problem and Intricate Role
 of Drug Cartels in the Western Hemisphere
10/01/2016

Summary: Drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) continue to act as a serious problem of U.S. national security.  However, the troubling crisis in the Middle East and the lingering threat of international Islamic terrorism has largely overshadowed the threats posed by the cartels. Nevertheless, though a general understanding exists about DTOs and their activities, the intricate role they now play into the society and systems of government for several countries in the Western Hemisphere has still largely gone unrecognized.  Indeed, DTOs are far from vanquished or even controlled and have only continued as a growing threat to the security of not just the United States but the entire Western Hemisphere.

Turkey’s Desultory and Dangerous Foreign Policy
07/01/2016​

Summary: The rise of the Arab Spring, more particularly the Syrian civil war, and the ISIS offensive in northern Iraq has created a fresh crisis for Turkey.  Al-Qa‘ida-related groups have carried out several terror attacks in that country in the past and continue to do so.  Based on this perspective, Turkey has already seemed more willing to work with the United States to marginalize al-Qa‘ida-linked organizations.  Turkey has also reportedly agreed to take part in a U.S.-led program to train vetted rebels in Qatar to marginalize jihadis in the Syrian opposition.[1]  However, though Turkey has been seen as a beneficial partner in the fight to stabilize the region, its own agenda may be more suspect.

[1] http://www.mei.edu/content/article/turkey-and-isis-challenge
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