Summary of June Report:
(Will be posted June 1, 2018)

In the last few years Russia has been playing a serious role in the affairs of the greater region of the Middle-East. In doing so, it has assumed a powerful position as both a military and economic power. One that has provided largely as a bulwark to U.S. and western influences in the region.

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J.E.Higgins

In the past, enemies needed great armies and great industrial capabilities to endanger America. Now, shadowy networks of individuals can bring boundless chaos and suffering to our shores for less than it costs to purchase a single tank.

Terrorists are organized to penetrate open societies and to turn the power of modern technologies against us (https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/nsc/nssall.html). Among the most series threats, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) intelligence arm remains a critical security challenge.

My April 1 report will take an in-depth look at the ongoing threat of DPRK Intelligence to U.S. security. 

Brazil continued to be the top destination of exports, with $316 mm, followed by Mexico ($153 mm), Venezuela ($74 mm), Colombia ($71 mm), Peru ($62 mm), Chile ($60 mm), Argentina ($44 mm), Guatemala ($31 mm), Dominican Republic ($27 mm) and Ecuador ($24m). In these days of austerity and budget cuts in the region, affordable Indian generic medicines are preferred by Latin American consumers as well as their governments. In recent years, Mexico has become the chief beneficiary of relations with India.

In 2016 Mexico became the top destination of India’s exports to Latin America and the leading destination in the world of India’s car exports. Exports to Mexico were $2.865 bn in 2015-16.  Mexico, the second-largest economy in the region, has been growing and India’s exports to that country have also been steadily increasing. Mexico’s share of India’s vehicle exports was $1.03 bn out of the total Indian exports of $5.6 bn. Even more interesting is that vehicle exports to Mexico have shown an impressive 31% growth from 2014-15 (thewire.in/43577).

In June 2016 Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Mexico City for a working visit at which time he agreed with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto to raise the level of bilateral relations between the two countries from 'privileged' to 'strategic partnership'. The two leaders agreed to “Seek ways to deepen our cooperation in aerospace issues, in science and in technology as well. We will also launch concrete projects in areas such as agriculture, agricultural research, biotechnology and waste management, management of natural disasters and solar energy.” (sandiegouniontribune.com/). Bilateral trade has grown rapidly in recent years, at double-digit rates consistently.

A well-diversified basket, comprising, inter alia, chemicals & petrochemicals, engineering goods, automobiles & auto parts, pharmaceuticals, diamonds, textiles & garments, and gasoline round out the array of trading goods. Crude oil is still the major Mexican export to India, besides fertilizers, iron & steel, and engineering goods. The areas assessed to have maximum growth potential are mining (projects in Mexico), food processing and infrastructure (projects in India), automobiles & auto parts, textiles & garments, software and IT, pharmaceuticals, engineering, renewable energy, and biotechnology.

Indian investments in Mexico are estimated (to be) several hundred million dollars, and Mexico is now in a catching-up phase. Most major Indian IT companies, several pharmaceutical companies, and engineering companies in tires, packaging, and electrical equipment have a growing Indian presence in Mexico, whereas Mexican investments in India are in multiplexes, housing & infrastructure, auto parts, cement, and food processing. (Arcelor Mittal made one of its early major takeovers in Mexico).

Investments from India in Mexico are estimated significantly above US$ 1 billion. Most of the leading Indian companies in IT/software (TCS, Infosys, Wipro, NIIT, BirlaSoft, HCL, Aptech, Hexaware, Patni, Tech Mahindra etc.) and pharmaceutical (Claris Life Sciences, Wockhardt, Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Lupin Pharma, Zydus Pharma etc.) sector have set up joint ventures in Mexico taking advantage of its strategic location, large market and investment-friendly policies. In 2008, JK Tyres of India bought Mexican tire company Tornel. Leading Mexican companies like Homex, Cinepolis Cemex, and Mexichem have likewise invested in India in recent times. Major investments in the steel and mining sector have also been made by the Arcelor Mittal Group.

Through Mexico’s own sizable market and investment-friendly policies, it is eminently placed to offer the strategic advantage of the world’s largest NAFTA market, already drawing large FDIs from the USA and elsewhere. Indian cinema Bollywood’s estimated the immense potential for Mexico and Latin America yet remains to be explored. Apex chambers from both sides have several cooperation MOUs, and Indian business delegations regularly participate in several major trade fairs in Mexico (indembassy.org/).

However, India's vibrant, growing diverse democratic culture has caught Mexico's fancy. Indian Government Programs such as 'Make in India', 'Digital India’, etc. are key initiatives to attract investment, and many Mexican companies are interested in sectors such as food processing, IT and telecom, auto components, Infrastructure (affordable housing) among others and are keen to take advantage of these programs. Mexico is India’s ninth supplier with around $1.8 billion in 2015. Overall, the value of Indian crude oil imports has gone down by an average -40% from all supplying countries, since 2011, when crude oil purchases were valued at $122.1 billion. But, Mexico is one of the countries that upped the value of their crude oil supplies to Indian importers by 31%.

The ‘MakeinIndia’ programme is of interest to the Mexican companies. Over the last several decades, Mexico had a similar program “Made in Mexico”, that evolved from a simple low-tech, high-volume, low-mix assembly-based manufacturing model into an emerging industrial powerhouse with in-country capabilities to produce a gamut of sophisticated items, ranging from high-tolerance, precision machine components that are incorporated into modern jetliners to delicate and highly calibrated devices that are used in life saving medical procedures.

The “Made in Mexico” program has come to embody quality, as well as to represent one of the world’s most competitive total landed cost manufacturing locations. This program has translated to low or exempted MFN import tariffs for more than 70% of the 12,119 tariff codes. This has positioned the country among the most open in the world (Free Trade Agreements with more than 45 countries) and has generated a trade-to-GDP ratio of more than 61% (more than United States, Brazil, and even China), etc. (thedollarbusiness.com/).

India’s involvement in South America goes back to the early 21st century with Brazil. In the 21st century, Brazil focused on the idea of reciprocal multilateralism, i.e. the rules of multilateral orders should benefit all nations, and not merely be dictated by the superpowers for their benefit. The President maintained the tradition of formulating and programming foreign policy as a state policy. Lula, in his entire tenure, is stated to have visited around 80 countries. India, too, shared similar views on reciprocal multilateralism like Brazil. The essence of this idea was rightly projected when both the countries led the developing world during the trade negotiations over agricultural subsidies in 2003 in Cancun. The unified stance of resistance marked the beginning of a new era in international relations and hinted at non-accommodation of North-South relations.

The two countries pursued their stance of negotiating on their terms--not just by what is prescribed by the major powers—and came together again to form the G4 group.

Along with Germany and Japan, the two emerging nations supported each other in order to bid for a permanent seat in United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

Brazilian investments in India comprise sectors like automobiles, IT, mining, energy, biofuels, and footwear. On the other hand, Indian companies have invested in areas of IT, pharmaceuticals, energy, agri-business, mining and engineering/auto sectors. The Indian companies that have marked their presence in Brazil are Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Wipro, Infosys, Cadilla, Mahindra, L&T, Renuka Sugars, United Phosphorus, and Polaris are present in Brazil.

Indian pharmaceutical laboratories, such as Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and Ranbaxy, which are big exporters of generic medicines, have formed joint ventures and installed factories in Brazil as well. The Brazilian companies gaining a foothold in India include Marco Polo (automobiles), Vale (biggest mining company), Stefanini (IT), Gerdau (Steel) (idsa.in/backgrounder/). Much of the recent push toward India is due in part to the current political climate emanating from the United States.

The tactics employed by U.S. President Trump toward Latin American countries have been seen as bullying and remarks seen as racist.  Specifically, in the case of Mexico, the situation between the U.S. has been greatly jeopardized. Current U.S. policies have cornered Mexicans and jeopardized their economy. Mexico depends on the U.S. for 81% of its exports and nearly 50% of its imports. Statistics show that U.S. and Mexico trade is at least 1.5 billion a day. The recent H-1B announcements by President Donald Trump have prompted Ambassador Madam Melba Pria to invite Indian professionals to Mexico.

India is a part of SAARC, ASEAN, and other organizations just as Mexico is part of NAFTA and TPP amongst others. Indian companies are doing business on the entire American continent taking advantage of the regional collaboration agreements Mexico holds with its neighbors. A couple of examples; through NAFTA, India has access to the entire North American region and through the Pacific Alliance, they can do business as any other Mexican company in South American countries such as Chile, Colombia and Peru (thedollarbusiness.com/).

Conclusion:

At a time when the developing world is experiencing frustrations with the traditional major power partners and are suspicious of their overall motives, India is taking advantage of this situation and offering itself up as an alternative to the major powers. Several possibilities have the potential to arise from this. If trends continue as they are, in the next ten years India’s position as an economic trading partner will grow considerably; to the point of overtaking the U.S, E.U. and China as the chief economic power in the Latin American region.

This presents several considerations for how it will impact the geopolitical landscape. As countries such as Mexico develop greater economic ties to India, they will become less dependent on North American business to sustain their economy. In the long run, this will greatly erode the power of U.S. influence in the region. At the same time, this situation is also working to erode the growing influence of China, who has likewise been using its economic prowess to strengthen its power in the region. This development is likely to heighten hostilities between India and China who, as this reporting site has discussed in previous reports, are in the developing stages of a modern-day global cold-war.
 
What must be understood by the nations of the developed world is that India presents a new sphere of influence.
Where many nations in the developing world have come to see traditional global powers such as the E.U, North America, and China as domineering and racist in their dealings, India is a country that still is recognized as part of the developing world and has endured similar discrimination from the same institutions. This has made it easier for India to be seen as a comrade state rather than as a potential exploiter. India is capitalizing on this strategy as a means to build global relations with trading partners. So far, in the years that India has been involved in Latin America, it has shown little interest in pursuing much beyond the means of economic interests. Nor is it a real possibility that India would do so in the immediate future. However, if circumstances should change, India could viably become another means Latin American countries can turn to for military support and possibly more.
 
The U.S. needs to understand that in the coming years India will be a serious power in the Western Hemisphere, one that will have interest in the direction of the region and serious influence to impact what happens. In response, the U.S. needs to begin developing a strategy for how it intends to address this issue in the future. India will be a powerful ally in several matters. It could also be a powerful means to marginalize the U.S. power base and thereby present a new balance of power that Latin American countries will be able to turn to as an alternative if they do not wish to be reliant or succumb to U.S. pressures.
 
 
Sources:
​
http://todaycolombia.com/colombia-has-started-to-look-seriously-at-indian-economy-and-opportunities/
https://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2007/05/21/mexico-and-india-strengthen-trade-relations/
https://thewire.in/43577/mexico-overtakes-brazil-as-largest-destination-of-indian-exports-in-latin-america/
https://www.thedollarbusiness.com/news/india-and-mexicos-bilateral-trade-could-reach-10-bn-in-5-years-blanco/49667
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/hoy-san-diego/sdhoy-mexico-india-agree-to-upgrade-relations-to-2016jun09-story.html
http://thewire.in/41343/interview-as-modi-heads-to-mexico-ambassador-melba-pria-tells-us-whats-on-the-agenda/
http://www.indembassy.org/eoi.php?id=Bilateral
https://idsa.in/backgrounder/IndiaBrazilRelations_210712
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/brics-summit-pm-modi-leaves-for-brazil-also-to-meet-latin-leaders/story-QtmlC29ywDmvlitUJITJsO.html
http://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/COLOMBIA_2016_EN_ES_proofread.pdf
http://www.embajadaindia.org/eoi.php?id=India_Colombia

Summary
 
The decision by the U.S. to move the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem has sparked global protests. Currently, the Islamic nation-states of the South-Pacific have been awash with protests of Muslims rallying support of the Palestinians. These protests have not just been gatherings of several thousand people, they have also received the public support of their executive political leaders including the president of Indonesia and the prime minister of Malaysia. This raises a concern as to where the future of the South-Pacific is headed, and what it means for U.S. security interests in the region.  
 
Additional Considerations
 
The decision of the United States to move its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem has inflamed tensions between the Islamic world and the West. This includes the region of Southeast Asia. In Indonesia, thousands have taken to the streets to demand a reversal of the decision and the acknowledgment of Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state (atimes.com). 


For the world’s largest Muslim majority country, a geographical distance from the Middle East is secondary to an enduring belief that the Islamic world must support its own populations. Indonesian President Joko Widodo has made Palestinian independence a long-running foreign policy priority for the county that has been elevated under his leadership. He hosted the 2015 Asia-Africa Conference, bringing together leaders from across the two continents in one of his first major world stage appearances. (atimes.com). 


Though Indonesian president Joko Widodo has been a strong proponent of a united Islamic world and an avowed supporter of the Palestinian cause, his personal record would not categorize him as a religious or political extremist. Joko Widodo (Jokowi) was elected Indonesia’s President, becoming the first leader elected outside of the country’s narrow political and military elite and coming from poverty. Jokowi has released 12 economic reform packages aimed at easing investment into the country and doing away with troublesome and redundant regulations (time.com).

In short, Jokowi is trying, step-by-step, to live up to his pledge of making it easier to do business in Indonesia. He has pledged to eliminate 3,000 regional government regulations by July (he has identified 42,000 regulations in need of elimination or change at the central government level), arguing they hamper the setting up and operation of businesses (csis.org). 


He has made a bold new appointment for the chief of the national police, the former head of the national counterterrorism agency, Tito Karnavian (time.com). Karnavian presided over the pursuit of the Islamic terrorist Santoso. Santoso was the symbolic heart of the jihadi movement in Indonesia. He had trained more than 100 Indonesians but also a few Malaysians, creating a powerful alumni network (time.com).


A driving force in all of this has been the Indonesian Council of Ulema. It has been leading the “Indonesia unites for Palestine” movement. The country’s top Muslim clerical body organized a several day protest in the nation’s capital that collected thousands of people. Anwar Abbas, a top cleric from Palestine, read a petition calling on Indonesians to stop buying American products until Trump revoked his move (timesofisrael.com).


Nadlatul Ulama, or Council of Ulema, is a powerful organization. With 50-million strong it is the largest Sunni Islamic organization in the world (huffingtonpost.com). The organization has a history of bloody conflict, particularly with communists. It was instrumental in combating several communist uprisings such as the Madiun in 1948 where hundreds of NU and PKI members (a Kurdish group) were killed.


Later, NU violently clashed with the leftist PKI in the so-called 'unilateral actions' of 1964 and early 1965, when communist groups had sought to occupy large rural landholdings owned by well-to-do Muslims. In the period leading up to the coup, some sections of NU had worked closely with anti-communists in other political parties and the army to build an informal anti-PKI alliance. During this time NU units worked closely with the army and other anti-communist groups in drawing up lists of PKI members and supporters then either detaining or executing them. Much of the killing by NU squads took place on riverbanks or in fields, with victims usually being killed in a quick and orderly fashion using bladed weapons. Tens of thousands of PKI members and 'sympathizers' met their deaths at the hands of NU killing squads. Anecdotal information suggests that NU units were probably responsible for more executions than any other civilian group.


When those involved in NU's killing squads are asked why they executed communists, the most frequent reply is that their motivation was religious. Many Ulama described communists as kafir harbi or war-like infidels, informing their students and followers that it was an obligation to physically oppose such enemies until they either relent or are dead (insideindonesia.org). Though the organization has a history of violence that was religiously driven, it has also proven in modern times to be a powerful stalwart against religious extremism. 


Part a Sunni religious body, part political party and part charity, it was founded in 1926, nearly 90 years ago, as a response to another Sunni movement, Wahabbism. Wahabbism is the ultra-conservative reform movement based in Saudi Arabia that advocates for puritanical laws from the time of Islam’s origins. It rejects the modern notion of religion as a purely private activity and the separation of church and state.


The Islamic State is highly committed to Wahhabi principles, using its religious textbooks and embracing its hardline tradition of killing unbelievers. NU’s stated goal is to “to spread messages about a tolerant Islam in their respective countries to curb radicalism, extremism and terrorism,” which, it claims, “often spring from a misinterpretation of Islamic teachings.” It launched its global anti-extremism initiative in 2014. 


NU is setting its sights worldwide. In December 2014, it created an American nonprofit called Bayt ar-Rahmah in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, to serve as headquarters for its international activities. It is also building a “prevention center” in Indonesia to train Arabic-speaking students to combat jihadist rhetoric, alongside NU theologians. It has created a joint program with the University of Vienna in Austria called VORTEX, the Vienna Observatory for Applied Research on Radicalism and Extremism.

The project, which is funded by the Ministry of Internal Security, works to “produce counter-narratives against radical ideas and propagate them globally,” said Staquf. He said NU is also working on future projects with the Swedish and British governments (huffingtonpost.com).


Malaysians planning a protest at the Putra Mosque intend a show of unity rejecting the United States’ move to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Such events and voicing of disapproval have been well reported. What has been somewhat dismissed is the greater support these protests are receiving from ranking heads of state (thestar.com).


On 22 December 2017, a protest was held at Malaysia’s Putra Mosque. In attendance was the Malayan Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who arrived at the Putra Mosque to take part in the Solidarity Rally to Save Jerusalem. He arrived at 1 pm and immediately went to the prayer hall to perform the Friday prayer followed by the Hajat prayer. A special sermon touching on the Jerusalem issues is being delivered by Federal Territory Mufti Datuk Dr Zulkifli Mohamad Al-Bakri. Also in attendance was Former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad (nst). In addition PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang, Palestine Ambassador to Malaysia Datuk Dr Anwar Al Agha and various political and NGO leaders were expected to make an appearance (thestartv.com).


In response to these protests and others like them being carried on throughout the world, the U.S. has threatened strong action. U.S President Donald Trump has threatened to cut off U.S. funding to countries that support a resolution criticizing his decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital. US Ambassador Nikki Haley stated that the United States "will be taking names" of countries that vote in favour of a General Assembly resolution declaring that Jerusalem's status can be changed only by direct Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.


"For all these nations, they take our money and then vote against us. They take hundreds of millions of dollars, even billions of dollars and then they vote against us." 


In a letter to over 180 of the 193 UN member states, Ms Haley hinted at possible U.S. retaliation. Mr Trump's comments made clear to recipients of US assistance that billions of dollars could be at stake (thenational).


Conclusion 

The situation regarding Jerusalem has sparked a global outcry from the world, particularly the Muslim dominated regions. What is difficult to ascertain is whether the positions taken by the political leadership of such countries as Indonesia are hardened stances of belief or if this is the simple politics of appeasing the current political climates within their own borders. Given that much of this fervor is being driven by powerful Islamic political agents it is understandable that politicians in these countries tread lightly.


The U.S. has a right to maintain its position and assert its rights in the world. However, it must also understand what greater ramifications exist beyond their actions. If the protests of even more traditionally moderate nations are indeed being driven by powerful influences within their religious communities, then it is paramount that the U.S. does not exacerbate the situation. A primary U.S. concern should be moving too boldly on the global stage in a way that offers fuel that could feed anti-American movements throughout the world. If moderate governments are delivering public outcry as a way to appease angered political bases, then a sudden withdrawal of needed financial aid or some other form of detrimental retaliation by the U.S. will only undermine their position and open the door for other threats to emerge.


The U.S. should not simply kowtow to world opinion, it should, when necessary, assert itself. How it responds must be more thoughtful and decisive so as not to create grossly negative second and third order effects.